Residential population density, i.e. the average number of residents per square mile, does not appear to be a key determinant of COVID-19’s impacts.

Many prominent government leaders have blamed density for New York City’s emergence as a hotspot of COVID-19. Yet “density” is a catchall term for many different aspects of the urban environment without being specific.

Is it too many buildings, too close together? Or too many people? Or people too close together inside the buildings? Is it too many people outside? On public transit? These distinctions are crucial to make, especially when it comes to ebbing the tide of a deadly pandemic.

Residential population density, i.e. the average number of residents per square mile, does not appear to be a key determinant of COVID-19’s impacts. Many global cities that are as dense as, or denser, than New York City have fared far better in this pandemic. Seoul is 1.5 times as dense as NYC, with 1.5 million more residents yet reports only 7.4 cases per 100,000 residents and four total deaths. Our current COVID-19 rate tops 2,200 cases per 100,000 residents, and over 20,000 New Yorkers have lost their lives.

But many rural areas in the U.S. are witnessing even higher rates of COVID-19 than we are. The top five counties with the most virus cases per capita — Trousdale, Tenn.; Lincoln, Ark.; Dakota, Neb.; Nobles, Minn.; and Lake, Tenn. — are each home to fewer than 100 residents per square mile, compared to New York City’s 27,000.

More CHPC in the media

NYC Homeowner Incentive Program Shows Promise for Low-Cost Housing Supply

While most people might think of New York City as a dense place with big apartment buildings, lower-density neighborhoods make up more than half of the city's land, Mr. Slatkin said. That's why the program seems promising, he said. It "helps ordinary homeowners who don’t have the kind of access to capital that a builder on their own might have," he said. "This is the way that you can produce housing at a relatively low cost," he said.
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Zoning is Essential But Not Enough

On the Max Politics podcast with Ben Max released Tuesday, October 31st, 2023, CHPC Executive Director Howard Slatkin discussed in depth why zoning reform is essential, but not enough to address our housing crisis. 
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Mixed use in the City of Yes housing proposals

"It's also a substantive housing strategy," said CHPC Executive Director Howard Slatkin. "When everyone is producing some housing, you don't get the kind of overheated market conditions and distortions or disruptive effects on individual neighborhoods the same way. It has a stabilizing effect."
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